When selfproclaimed climatologist Iben Browning predicted that a majorearthquake would shatter the Heartland on 2 or 3 December 1990 many livingwithin reach of ... » 

When selfproclaimed climatologist Iben Browning predicted that a majorearthquake would shatter the Heartland on 2 or 3 December 1990 many livingwithin reach of the New Madrid fault zone reacted with varying combinations ofpreparation and panic.John E. Farley explores public reaction to Brownings pseudoscientificprediction presenting important data gathered both before and after the threatproved empty. Farley and fellow members of his survey team consider the longterm effects of the Browning prediction on earthquake awareness andpreparedness in a region that remains at risk for a damaging quake. The NewMadrid Seismic Zone NMSZ in fact generated the strongest earthquakes everobserved in the lower fortyeight states in 1811 and 1812. And the region isoverdue for another damaging quake.A number of researchers have examined public response to earthquakepredictions but no other prediction scientific or otherwise attractedthe level of attention Brownings did. Further Farley is the first researcherto study the response to an earthquake prediction while the prediction remainedin effect and to continue the inquiry after the date covered by the predictionhad passed. His surveys answer such questions as whether the people stayedprepared or whether there was a crywolf effect. Farley is also the firstresearcher to look at earthquake awareness and preparedness in the NMSZ over anextended period of time.Farley reports the results of four surveys conducted in the NMSZ one inOctober 1990 two months before Brownings predicted date for the cataclysmicquake a second in February 1991 two months after the quake failed tomaterialize a third in July1992 and a fourth in May 1993. Thus Farley notesthe level of awareness and preparation at the height of the Browninginducedscare and shows to what extent earthquake awareness and preparedness weresustained in this region after the most widely publicized prediction in recen «